Andrew Hartland's Blog

HIGHLIGHTS

- Market in a frenzy.

- Sales price to list price over 100% to 100.6%. Palo Alto’s sp/lp ratio was 108.6%.

- Home inventory won’t be increasing any time soon.

Low inventory and high demand are pushing the local real estate market to the extreme with buyers waiving contingencies, property inspections and even appraisals.

The last few months of multiple offers has forced the sales price to list price ratio for single-family, re-sale homes up to 100.6%, a level we haven’t seen since May 2010.

Prices have followed with the average home price now at it’s highest level since July 2008.

The high end of the market, however that is defined in a particular city, is on fire. The low end of the market is being driven by investors with cash and is also totally out of whack. The middle market, the move-up market is soft because the entry-level homeowners are still underwater.

What’s next?

That’s hard to tell because inventory is incredibly low. Home inventory is at its lowest point since December 2004. We don’t see that changing much in the near future for several reasons.

First, there is not a lot of new home building going on, which is necessary to relieve the pressure.

Second, many existing homeowners aren’t going anywhere. If they have good jobs here, where would they go?

Lastly, forget about phantom inventory. As of March, the banks owned 1,757 properties in the county. That number includes homes AND condos. There are currently 1,552 homes AND condos actively listed for sale.

Even if the banks put all their inventory on the market, it’s only five weeks worth!

We’re stuck with this market for at least the next year.

APRIL MARKET STATISTICS

As was to be expected, the largest price increases for single-family, re-sale homes were in Los Altos, up 19.7% year-over-year, Palo Alto, up 22.8%, Morgan Hill, up 17.2%, and Mountain View, up 10.6%. These are the median prices.

Even more telling is the sales price to list price ratios. Palo Alto weighs in at 108.6%. Mountain View and Cupertino were at 104%. Los Altos was 103.4%. The county as a whole was at 100.3%. Even San Jose was at 100%.

Home sales were down 3.9% year-over-year, and that’s not a function of low demand! Home sales have been lower than the year before for the past five months.

The condo side of things isn’t much different. Inventory is at its lowest level since January 2005, The median price for condos was up 22.6% compared to last April. The sales price to list price ratio was 100.9%.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It’s important to be calm and realistic. If you don’t know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let’s discuss your situation and your options.

Go to my on-line site SCVReport.com for the full report, plus a city-by-city breakdown.

- The median price for single-family, re-sale homes went over the $600,000 mark for the first time since August 2008.

- Inventory continued to decline in November: down 66.7% compared to November 2008.

- Pending sales were up 90.4% year-over-year.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes went over the $600,000 mark in November for the first time since August 2008. It was also up, year-over-year, for the second month in a row.

The median price rose 2.1% month-over-month, and was up 20.3% compared to last November.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes declined 12.6% last month compared to October. Year-over-year, sales were up 35.6%. November was the seventeenth month in a row that sales were higher than the year before. Year-to-date, home sales are up 21.5%.

Condo sales were down last month, dropping 24.5% from October, but were up 49.5% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are up 22.4%.

The median price for condos rose 1.4% from the month before, and was up 14% year-over-year.

Inventory continues to decline with the supply of homes down 13.2% from October, and off 66.7% year-over-year. Condo inventory dropped 6.5%, off 66.5% compared to last November.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes stayed over 100% for the fifth month in a row: 100.7%.

Our days of inventory indicator for single-family homes was flat at 60 days. The indicator for condos rose twelve days to 62.

Pending sales, an indicator of what’s going to happen in the next month or two, fell 6% from October, but were up 90.4% year-over-year.

Go to my on-line site SCVReport.com for the full report, plus a city-by-city breakdown.

If you would like to search for properties in the Santa Clara Valley, go to my online search form at: MLS Search

If you find the Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report useful and know someone else who might, please feel free to forward this e-mail to them. There is also a four page printable version with more articles here:
Printable Report.

- The median price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, for the first time since January 2008.

- Inventory continued to decline in October: down 64.4% compared to October 2008.

- Pending sales were up 113.4% year-over-year.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 5.3% month-over-month, and was up 9.6% compared to last October. This is the first time since January 2008 the median price has been higher than the year before.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes declined 3.7% last month compared to September. Year-over-year, sales were up 17.4%. October was the sixteenth month in a row that sales were higher than the year before. Year-to-date, home sales are up 20.2%.

Condo sales were up last month, rising 10% from September, and up 36.1% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are up 20.0%.

The median price for condos rose 3.9% from the month before, but was down 6.7% year-over-year.

Inventory continues to decline with the supply of homes down 7.2% from September, and off 64.4% year-over-year. Condo inventory dropped 9.2%, off 65.9% compared to last October.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes stayed over 100% for the fourth month in a row.

Our days of inventory indicator for single-family homes shed two days, sending the indicator to 60 days. The indicator for condos fell eleven days to 50.

Pending sales, an indicator of what’s going to happen in the next month or two, rose 3% from September, and were up 113.4% year-over-year.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home’s worth, call me.

Go to my on-line site SCVReport.com for the full report, plus a city-by-city breakdown.

If you would like to search for properties in the Santa Clara Valley, go to my online search form at: MLS Search

If you find the Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report useful and know someone else who might, please feel free to forward this e-mail to them. There is also a four page printable version with more articles here:
Printable Report.

HIGHLIGHTS for September 2009

- Home sales increased, year-over-year, by 10.7% in September.

- Year-to-date, home sales are up 20.6%.

- Inventory continued to decline in September: down 62.6% compared to September 2008.

- Pending sales were up 95.7% year-over-year.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 6.7% last month compared to August. Year-over-year, sales were up 10.7%. Year-to-date, home sales are up 20.6%.

The median price for homes rose 1.4% month-over-month, but was off 4.6% compared to last September.

Condo sales were also up last month, rising 9.4% from August, and up 25% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are up 18%.

The median price for condos rose 2.0% from the month before, but was down 6.1% year-over-year.

Inventory continues to decline with the supply of homes down 9.6% from August, and off 62.6% year-over-year. Condo inventory dropped 7.4%, off 63% compared to last September.

The sales price to list price ratio rose 0.5 of a point to 101.2% for homes. The ratio for condos also gained 0.5 of a point to 101.2%.

Days on market fell three days to 52 for homes. Days on market for condos dropped three days to 55 days.

Our days of inventory indicator for single-family homes continued downward on the increase in sales, shedding twelve days, sending the indicator to 62 days. The indicator for condos fell eleven days to 61.

Pending sales, an indicator of what’s going to happen in the next month or two, fell 3.6% from August, but were up 95.7% year-over-year.

Go to my on-line site www.SCVReport.com for the full report, plus a city-by-city breakdown.