Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report – August 2012


Local Market in Need of a Relaxitive
Market conditions in Santa Clara County are creating a high level of frustration, particularly for buyers.

These conditions will resolve themselves, in time. But, it is going to take time for the market to settle down.

Lack of inventory is the most important dynamic at the moment. There are several reasons why inventory is low and will continue to be so for the next two to three years.

First, investors are snapping up entry-level homes and turning them into rentals.

Second, underwater homeowners are unable to sell. According to DataQuick, a real estate tracking firm, about 28% of all homeowners in the county are underwater, with most of them concentrated in the entry-level market. It’s going to take years before they are able to sell.

Third, the large increase in the IPO nouveau-riche over the past few years has fueled demand in the $1MM+ segment of the market.

Fourth, new-home building in the county is moribund.

It’s a perfect storm for home buyers.

The one bright note is the surge in prices since the beginning of the year. We calculate the median price for single-family homes is up 28% since January.

If prices continue rising at this pace, we could see the market loosening up by next spring because many underwater homeowners will be able to breathe again.


Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 19.4% year-over-year.

Home inventory was off 32.8% from last July. That’s eighteen months in a row inventory has been lower than the year before.

The median price for homes rose 16.9% year-over-year. This pushed the sales price to list price ratio to 102.1%. The median price has been higher than the year before for the past six months.

The average price for homes was up 17.3% year-over-year. The average price has been higher than the year before for the past nine months in a row.

Pending home sales, another good indicator of market movement, were up 0.6% year-over-year.


for homes bounced up 2.7 points to +4.3.


has been on the up-swing the past seven months. It gained 2 points to go into positive territory for the first time since last June: +0.2.


momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s 12-month moving average to last year’s, we get a percentage showing market momentum.


The median price for condos gained 19.6% year-over-year. Inventory problems affected sales which were down 3.9% from last July.

Condo inventory was down 77% from last July.

This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It’s important to be calm and realistic. If you don’t know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let’s discuss your situation and your options.

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Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report – Dec 2011


– Sales up, prices down in 2011.

– California Association of REALTORS® forecast for 2012.

– The number of properties owned by the banks was down 15.5% year-over-year.

Single-family, re-sales home sales were up 0.5% last year.

Unfortunately, after a nice gain in 2010, prices were down. The median price for homes dropped 5.3% and the average price was off 1%.

Condo sales in the county were up 12.2% over 2010.

The median price for condos dropped 13%.

expects the median home price to increase 1.7% in 2012. They forecast sales to increase by 1%.

“2012 will be another transition year for the California housing market, as the continued uncertainty about the U.S. financial system, job growth, and the stability of the overall economy remain in the forefront for all market participants,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.

“An improvement in job growth, consumer spending, and corresponding gains in housing are essential to a broader recovery in the economy, but would-be buyers will remain cautious as they weigh these myriad uncertainties against the clear opportunities presented by today’s very affordable housing market.

“The most likely scenario is for the modest recovery to continue, and this should push sales up slightly next year by 1 percent and maintain levels that are significantly higher than those recorded during the depths of the housing downturn.

“The wild cards for 2012 are many, including federal, fiscal, monetary, and housing policies; the contentious political climate during an election year; and the strength of the U.S. economic recovery,” said Appleton-Young.

Sale of single-family, re-sale homes ended the year on a high not, up 8% in December from November. Year-over-year, home sales were off 3.6%.

Condo sales were up 10.5% from November, and were up 12.5% year-over-year.

The median price for homes was down 4.5% year- over-year. This is the fourteenth month in a row the median price for homes has been lower than the year before.

The median price for condos was off 11.3% compared to last December.

Inventory of both homes and condos continues to be weak, which should be good for prices. Home inventory was down 28.5% compared to last December: 1,452 homes actively listed. Condo inventory was down 48.2% year-over-year.

Please remember, while statistics are nice, they will not determine the price you pay or get for a property. That will come down to you and the buyer or seller.

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