Real Estate Report – November 2015

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Santa Clara County Stats At A Glance

Year-Over-Year

  • Median home prices increased by 13.8% year-over-year to $970,000 from $852,500.
  • The average home sales price rose by 10.1% year-over-year to $1,220,730 from $1,109,020.
  • Home sales fell by 2.8% year-over-year to 684 from 704.
  • Active listings rose 19.9% year-over-year to 1,656 from 1,381.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.2% year-over-year to 102.5% from 102.8%.
  • The average days on market fell by 6.7% year-over-year to 28 from 30.

Compared To Last Month

  • Median home prices improved by 1.0% to $970,000 from $960,000.
  • The average home sales price fell by 1.7% to $1,220,730 from $1,241,810.
  • Home sales down by 19.1% to 684 from 846.
  • Active listings dropped 14.7% to 1,656 from 1,941.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 0.4% to 102.5% from 103.0%.
  • The average days on market increased by 6.6% to 28 from 26.

Lack of Affordable Homes to Continue

Housing affordability is one area where California can expect to experience long-term pain. Statewide, the percentage of households that earn enough to purchase a median-priced home rose 34 percent in early 2015 before settling in the low 30s—down from a high of 53 percent in 2011 and 36 percent in 2014. In high-priced coastal cities, percentages have fallen into the teens and lower.

The cause? Too many people, not enough homes being built, and rising prices that make it difficult, if not impossible, for many renters to buy. With renters paying a larger share of their income on rent, it is more difficult for them to save for a down payment.

“When I think about affordability, the first thing I think is, ‘Do we have an adequate supply?’” said Raphael Bostic, Ph.D., Judith and John Bedrosian Chair in Governance and the Public Enterprise at USC’s Price School of Public Policy, who recently returned to USC following three years as chief policy and research advisor to the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

“In many markets in California, the answer is no.”

Santa Clara County Stats At A Glance – September 2015

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Year-Over-Year

  • Median home prices increased by 12.9% year-over-year to $960,000 from $850,000.
  • The average home sales price rose by 11.7% year-over-year to $1,233,240 from $1,104,120.
  • Home sales fell by 2.2% year-over-year to 891 from 911.
  • Active listings fell 4.2% year-over-year to 2,155 from 2,249.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 0.3% year-over-year to 103.8% from 103.4%.
  • The average days on market fell by 14.7% year-over-year to 23 from 27.

Compared To Last Month

  • Median home prices slipped by 0.8% to $960,000 from $967,400.
  • The average home sales price fell by 1.6% to $1,233,240 from $1,252,710.
  • Home sales down by 7.7% to 891 from 965.
  • Active listings dropped 0.6% to 2,155 from 2,167.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 1% to 103.8% from 104.8%.
  • The average days on market increased by 3.4% to 23 from 23.

Market Leveling Off?

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The median price for single-family, re-sale homes went over $900,000 in February. Then, it proceeded to march straight up to a new record of $1,000,000 In May, where it stayed in June.

In July, the median price dropped back to $965,000. Of course, one month a trend doesn’t make. Yet, reports from the field signal a slowing down in activity.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down slightly in July from June, but managed to eke out a small gain year-over-year.

Active listings actually grew last month and were at their highest level last September. Nevertheless, they were down by double-digits for the fourteenth month in a row. Not just down, but down by over 20%.

Pending sales showed single-digit losses for the sixth month in a row. At a 1.2% loss, that is actually a positive.

The sales price to list price ratio has been over 100% for forty-one months in a row.

Looking at median price market momentum, after peaking in the middle of 2013, it has been pretty flat since the middle of 2014.

There is still an enormous amount of money chasing low inventory.

July Market Statistics

Year-Over-Year

  • Median home prices increased by 12.2% year-over-year to $965,000 from $860,250.
  • The average home sales price rose by 10.4% year-over-year to $1,225,200 from $1,109,490.
  • Home sales rose by 0.8% year-over-year to 1,089 from 1,080.
  • Total inventory* fell 14.1% year-over-year to 2,190 from 2,549.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 1.4% year-over-year to 105.4% from 103.9%.

Month-Over-Month

  • Median home prices slipped by 3.5% to $965,000 from $1,000,000.
  • The average home sales price fell by 6.7% to $1,225,200 from $1,313,490.
  • Home sales down by 0.6% to 1,089 from 1,096.
  • Total inventory* increased 0.4% to 2,190 from 2,182.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 1.5% to 105.4% from 106.9%.

Condominiums

Year-Over-Year

  • Median condo prices increased by 21.0% year-over-year to $635,000 from $525,000.
  • The average condo sales price rose by 20.1% year-over-year to $696,489 from $579,740.
  • Condo sales fell by 3.4% year-over-year to 429 from 444.
  • Total inventory* fell 27.7% year-over-year to 656 from 907.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 2.9% year-over-year to 106.6% from 103.7%.

Month-Over-Month

  • Median condo prices slipped by 2.5% to $635,000 from $651,000.
  • The average condo sales price fell by 2.9% to $696,489 from $716,991.
  • Condo sales down by 4.2% to 429 from 448.
  • Total inventory* dropped 3% to 656 from 676.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 1% to 106.6% from 107.7%.

Prices Reach New All-Time Highs

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Home prices continue to advance in accordance with supply and demand. There is strong demand and a definite lack of supply.

From January 2000 through December 2013, inventory averaged 3,456 units on the market each month. Since November 2013, inventory has averaged less than 1,500 units for sale.

Pending sales also continue to be anemic. They have been lower than closed sales for the past four months, portending a continuing slow down in sales in Santa Clara County.

Although condo prices also reached new highs last month, inventory and pending condo sales are much healthier.

Pending condo sales were actually up 6.4% year-over-year, although they are still lower than closed sales.

August Market Statistics

Year-Over-Year

  • Median home prices increased by 15.2% year-over-year to $870,000 from $755,000.
  • The average home sales price rose by 23.6% year-over-year to $1,154,130 from $933,508.
  • Home sales fell by 29.7% year-over-year to 910 from 1,295.
  • Total inventory* fell 40.7% year-over-year to 1,971 from 3,325.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.5% year-over-year to 103.2% from 103.7%.
  • The average days on market rose by 16.8% year-over-year to 26 from 22.

Compared To Last Month

  • Median home prices improved by 0.2% to $870,000 from $868,000.
  • The average home sales price rose by 2.9% to $1,154,130 from $1,121,460.
  • Home sales Down by 12.7% to 910 from 1,042.
  • Total inventory* dropped 4.3% to 1,971 from 2,060.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 0.7% to 103.2% from 104.0%.
  • The average days on market increased by 15.0% to 26 from 22.

Condominium Statistics

Year-Over-Year

  • Median condo prices increased by 31.8% year-over-year to $560,000 from $425,000.
  • The average condo sales price rose by 31.5% year-over-year to $602,755 from $458,243.
  • Condo sales rose by 32.1% year-over-year to 379 from 287.
  • Total inventory* rose 3.4% year-over-year to 642 from 621.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.7% year-over-year to 103.0% from 103.8%.
  • The average days on market rose by 18.1% year-over-year to 23 from 19.

* Total inventory is active listings plus contingent or pending listings. Active listings do not include contingent listings.