Market Leveling Off?

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The median price for single-family, re-sale homes went over $900,000 in February. Then, it proceeded to march straight up to a new record of $1,000,000 In May, where it stayed in June.

In July, the median price dropped back to $965,000. Of course, one month a trend doesn’t make. Yet, reports from the field signal a slowing down in activity.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down slightly in July from June, but managed to eke out a small gain year-over-year.

Active listings actually grew last month and were at their highest level last September. Nevertheless, they were down by double-digits for the fourteenth month in a row. Not just down, but down by over 20%.

Pending sales showed single-digit losses for the sixth month in a row. At a 1.2% loss, that is actually a positive.

The sales price to list price ratio has been over 100% for forty-one months in a row.

Looking at median price market momentum, after peaking in the middle of 2013, it has been pretty flat since the middle of 2014.

There is still an enormous amount of money chasing low inventory.

July Market Statistics

Year-Over-Year

  • Median home prices increased by 12.2% year-over-year to $965,000 from $860,250.
  • The average home sales price rose by 10.4% year-over-year to $1,225,200 from $1,109,490.
  • Home sales rose by 0.8% year-over-year to 1,089 from 1,080.
  • Total inventory* fell 14.1% year-over-year to 2,190 from 2,549.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 1.4% year-over-year to 105.4% from 103.9%.

Month-Over-Month

  • Median home prices slipped by 3.5% to $965,000 from $1,000,000.
  • The average home sales price fell by 6.7% to $1,225,200 from $1,313,490.
  • Home sales down by 0.6% to 1,089 from 1,096.
  • Total inventory* increased 0.4% to 2,190 from 2,182.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 1.5% to 105.4% from 106.9%.

Condominiums

Year-Over-Year

  • Median condo prices increased by 21.0% year-over-year to $635,000 from $525,000.
  • The average condo sales price rose by 20.1% year-over-year to $696,489 from $579,740.
  • Condo sales fell by 3.4% year-over-year to 429 from 444.
  • Total inventory* fell 27.7% year-over-year to 656 from 907.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 2.9% year-over-year to 106.6% from 103.7%.

Month-Over-Month

  • Median condo prices slipped by 2.5% to $635,000 from $651,000.
  • The average condo sales price fell by 2.9% to $696,489 from $716,991.
  • Condo sales down by 4.2% to 429 from 448.
  • Total inventory* dropped 3% to 656 from 676.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 1% to 106.6% from 107.7%.

Prices Reach New All-Time Highs

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Home prices continue to advance in accordance with supply and demand. There is strong demand and a definite lack of supply.

From January 2000 through December 2013, inventory averaged 3,456 units on the market each month. Since November 2013, inventory has averaged less than 1,500 units for sale.

Pending sales also continue to be anemic. They have been lower than closed sales for the past four months, portending a continuing slow down in sales in Santa Clara County.

Although condo prices also reached new highs last month, inventory and pending condo sales are much healthier.

Pending condo sales were actually up 6.4% year-over-year, although they are still lower than closed sales.

August Market Statistics

Year-Over-Year

  • Median home prices increased by 15.2% year-over-year to $870,000 from $755,000.
  • The average home sales price rose by 23.6% year-over-year to $1,154,130 from $933,508.
  • Home sales fell by 29.7% year-over-year to 910 from 1,295.
  • Total inventory* fell 40.7% year-over-year to 1,971 from 3,325.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.5% year-over-year to 103.2% from 103.7%.
  • The average days on market rose by 16.8% year-over-year to 26 from 22.

Compared To Last Month

  • Median home prices improved by 0.2% to $870,000 from $868,000.
  • The average home sales price rose by 2.9% to $1,154,130 from $1,121,460.
  • Home sales Down by 12.7% to 910 from 1,042.
  • Total inventory* dropped 4.3% to 1,971 from 2,060.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 0.7% to 103.2% from 104.0%.
  • The average days on market increased by 15.0% to 26 from 22.

Condominium Statistics

Year-Over-Year

  • Median condo prices increased by 31.8% year-over-year to $560,000 from $425,000.
  • The average condo sales price rose by 31.5% year-over-year to $602,755 from $458,243.
  • Condo sales rose by 32.1% year-over-year to 379 from 287.
  • Total inventory* rose 3.4% year-over-year to 642 from 621.
  • Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.7% year-over-year to 103.0% from 103.8%.
  • The average days on market rose by 18.1% year-over-year to 23 from 19.

* Total inventory is active listings plus contingent or pending listings. Active listings do not include contingent listings.

 

2014 C.A.R’s Housing Forecast

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California home sales and prices to rise in 2014 as market transitions toward primary home buyers.

The C.A.R. forecast sees sales gaining 3.2% next year.  Sales in 2013 will be down 2.1% from 2012. (Home sales in Santa Clara County are down 13.1% through November.)

“The housing market has improved over the past year, and we expect this trend to continue into 2014,” said C.A.R. President Don Faught. “As the economy enters the fourth year of a modest recovery, we expect to see a strong demand for homeownership, as buyers who have been competing with investors and facing an extreme shortage of housing return from the sidelines.”

The average for 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates will rise to 5.3%.

The California median home price is forecast to increase 6% to $432,800 in 2014, following a projected 28% increase in 2013 to $408,600. (The median price in Santa Clara County is up 18.5% through November.)

“We’ve seen a marked improvement in housing market conditions in a year with the distressed market shrinking from one in three sales a year ago to less than one in five in recent months, thanks primarily to sharp gains in home prices,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.  “As the market continues to improve, more previously underwater homeowners will look toward selling, making housing inventory less scarce in 2014.  As a result of these factors, we’ll see home price increases moderate from the double-digit increases we saw for much of this year to mid-single digits in most of the state.”

To read the full report: http://hartland.rereport.com/

 

Trends at a Glance

(Single-family Homes)

 

Nov 13

Oct 13

Nov 12

Median Price:

$   790,000

 $   760,000

 $685,000

Average Price:

$1,066,870

 $   994,010

 $885,921

Home Sales:

735

779

903

Pending Sales:

990

1,147

1,500

Inventory:

831

1,087

782

Sale/List Price Ratio:

102.7%

102.7%

102.3%

Days on Market:

28

28

32

Days of Inventory:

33

42

25

The Real Estate Report provides an automatic, easy to use, property analysis feature, a mini-CMA. You can access it in the Property Analysis tab. Input your address and get a list of properties around yours that have recently sold or are currently listed for sale, all on an easy to read map.

 

Market Normalizing?

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There are signs the Santa Clara real estate market is backing off from the latest push to bubblehood.

Investors are backing out of the market, mortgage rates are expected to keep rising, although mortgage rates did ease a bit recently, and, rather than 10+ offers on the best properties, we’re seeing 2-3 offers.

Prices are reflecting the pull back. The 3-month moving average for single-family, re-sale homes average price dropped below $1,000,000 in October, after being above that mark for five straight months.

These are all good signs for your regular buyer who wants to move into a home.

To read the full report: http://hartland.rereport.com/

 

Trends at a Glance

(Single-family Homes)

 

Oct 13

Sep 13

Oct 12

Median Price:

$760,000

 $   775,535

 $695,000

Average Price:

$994,010

 $   981,838

 $901,408

Home Sales:

779

904

982

Pending Sales:

1,147

1,147

1,640

Inventory:

1,087

1,293

1,038

Sale/List Price Ratio:

102.7%

102.6%

102.2%

Days on Market:

28

26

34

Days of Inventory:

42

41

32

The Real Estate Report provides an automatic, easy to use, property analysis feature, a mini-CMA. You can access it in the Property Analysis tab. Input your address and get a list of properties around yours that have recently sold or are currently listed for sale, all on an easy to read map.

Click http://hartland.rereport.com/ to see an example.