Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report – August/September 2011

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HIGHLIGHTS

- Where are all the foreclosures?

- Home and condo sales strong in August.

- Prices dip.

With all the pundits talking about phantom inventory and the huge surplus of foreclosures, one would expect a massive number of bank-owned properties to be on the market.

They are not. Inquiring minds want to know why not.

First, let’s look at some numbers. According to foreclosureradar.com, the number of bank-owned properties, called REOs, in Santa Clara County have averaged about 2,200 for the past thirteen months.

Yet, in the MLS, only about 220 properties are listed as REO. Now, remember, banks are not in the real estate business so they won’t be selling these properties themselves. They will be listing them with real estate brokers.

Which begs the question, why aren’t the rest of the REOs on the market?

Well, it’s pretty simple. The banks don’t like to lose money. If they put all these properties on the market at once, prices would plummet.

The banks are being very judicious about selling their REO property.

For a more complete report on Santa Clara County foreclosures, see the page three article.

MARKET STATISTICS

Home sales were quite strong in August. The sale of single-family, re-sale homes rose 22.6% from July and were up 14.3% year-over-year. Year-to-date, home sales are up 0.3%.

Condo sales were also strong in August, up 17.6% from July and up 17.3% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are up 11.2%. There have been more condos sold this year than any year since 2007.

Prices, on the other hand, dipped last month.

The median price for homes was down 5.3% year-over-year. This is the tenth month in a row the median price for homes has been lower than the year before.

The median price for condos was off 13.7% compared to last August. That’s twelve months in a row the median price has been lower than the year before.

Inventory of both homes and condos continues to be weak. Home inventory was down 23.4% compared to last August: 2,222 homes actively listed. Please note, only active listings are included in this figure. Numbers from the local associations include properties that are also in a pending status, meaning they have an accepted offer, but haven’t been taken off the market.

Condo inventory was down 34% year-over-year.

Please remember, while statistics are nice, they will not determine the price you pay or get for a property. That will come down to you and the buyer or seller.

Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report – June/July 2011

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HIGHLIGHTS

- Sales momentum faltering.

- Median price up year-over-year for the third month in a row.

- IPO millionaires boosting Silicon Valley home prices.

- Plus, Statistics: Tracking Momentum

According to a story by Dan Levy of Bloomberg news, a surge in wealth from technology stock sales and initial public offerings is spilling into California’s Silicon Valley real estate market as newly rich workers bid up home values in suburban cities south of San Francisco.

This is most evident in the average price of single-family, re-sale homes which has been higher than the year before for the past four months,  while the median price has been lower year-over-year for the past eight months.

County Statistics
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes turned around last month after an abysmal May, rising 2.2% year-over-year.

The median price for homes in Santa Clara County has been rising, month-over-month, since February, but has been down year-over-year for the past eight months. In June, the median price rose 5.8% from May.

Pricing momentum…
while still positive, has been trending down for the past eight months and now stands at +1, a decline of one point from the month before.

Sales momentum…
turned up last month and gained one points to –8.

Pending momentum…
a harbinger of future sales turned negative in June, dropping four points to –3.

More Statistics…
Year-over-year, home inventory was down by 11.1%. This is the fourth month in a row inventory has been lower than the year before. A decline in inventory will, eventually, put upward pressure on prices.

Pending inventory was down, year-over-year, for the eighth month in a row: 3.2%.

The sales price to list price ratio rose 0.1 of a point to 99.7%.

In the condo market…
the median price was down 13.5% year-over-year.

Condos sales were up 13.4% year-over-year.

Pending condo sales declined last month, falling 0.5% compared to last June.

Inventory decreased, year-over-year, for the first time since last May, falling 12.8%.

Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report – May/June 2011

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- In Santa Clara County, notices of default and notices of sales have been declining for the past year.

- Median price for homes was up 3.4% from April, but down 4.5% year-over-year.

- Home sales off 19% from last May.

Two years talk of phantom inventory was all the rage. There are three components to phantom inventory: first, all the property the banks owned that hadn’t been put on the market, second, all the property on which a notice of default had been filed but had not yet gone back to the banks, finally, there are strategic defaults. These are the property owners who are underwater, meaning they owe more on the property than it is currently worth and have decided to walk away.

Last month, JPMorgan Chase analysts determined that strategic defaults were declining. In their analysis, they found 60% of all defaults were strategic by the middle of 2009, and that this had declined to 30%.

It is important to note these are national figures.

In Santa Clara County, notices of default and notices of sales have been declining for the past year.

County Statistics
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes fell in May, an unusual occurrence, falling 3.1% from April, and down 19% year-over-year.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Santa Clara County was up 3.4% from April, but down 4.5% year-over-year. This is the seventh month in a row the median price has been lower than the year before.

Pricing momentum…
while still positive, has been trending down for the past seven months and now stands at +2, a decline of three points from the month before.

Sales momentum…
turned down last month and dropped four points to –9.

Pending momentum…
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive, has also been trending downward. Last month the number was +1, a decline of four points.

More Statistics…
Year-over-year, home inventory was down by 3.4%.

Pending inventory was down, year-over-year, for the seventh month in a row: 5.4%.

The sales price to list price ratio rose 0.2 of a point to 99.6%.

In the condo market…
The median price for condos was down 17.6%, year-over-year.

Condos sales were down 14.1% year-over-year.

Pending condo sales declined last month, falling 9.6% compared to last May.

Inventory increased for the twelfth month in a row, up 1.2% year-over-year.

Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report – April

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HIGHLIGHTS

- Home sales up year-over-year fourth month in a row.

- Median price for homes was up 3.1% from March, but down 7.5% year-over-year.

- Foreclosure notices surge in March from February, but were down compared to last year.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes continued to rise in April, gaining 3.4% from March, and up 11.2% year-over-year. This is the fourth month in a row home sales have been higher than the year before. Prior to this period, home sales been lower than the year before for seven months in a row.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Santa Clara County was up 3.1% from March, but down 7.5% year-over-year. This is the sixth month in a row the median price has been lower than the year before.

The average price was up 3.6% from March and posted a 1.1% year-over-year gain. The rise in the average price reflects increased activity in the luxury end of the market.

Sales momentum…
stopped trending downward in January. Last month it gained one point to –5.

Our momentum stats are calculated using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s 12-month moving average to last year’s, we get a percentage showing market momentum.

Pending momentum…
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive, has also been trending downward. Last month the number was +5, a decline of six points.

Pricing momentum…
while still positive, has been trending down for the past six months and now stands at +5, a decline of three points from the month before.

More Statistics…
Year-over-year, home inventory was down for the first time since last June: 5.6%.

Pending inventory was down, year-over-year, for the fifth month in a row: 4.2%.

The sales price to list price ratio was flat at 99%.

In the condo market…
the median price was down 18.8% year-over-year. The average price was also down, dropping 4.6% year-over-year.

Condos sales were up for the fourth month in a row, gaining 13.1% year-over-year.

Pending condo sales declined last month, falling 22.4% compared to last April.

Inventory increased for the eleventh month in a row, up 7.2% year-over-year.