Andrew Hartland's Blog

Sales of both single-family, re-sale homes and condos fell in July with the expiration of the Federal tax credit.

Home sales were off 15.6% compared to last July, while condo sales were down 18.8%.

The new state tax credit has pumped a little life into the high-end market. With more sales in that segment of the market, the average price for homes in July went over $800,000 for the first time since August 2008.

The high-end market has been helped by increasing access to jumbo and super-jumbo loans. Historically, and until July 2007, the spread or difference between conforming mortgage rates and jumbo rates moved within a narrow range of about 0.20%. At the trough of the market, the spread was 1.9%. Now, the spread is down to 0.5%, and the secondary market for jumbo loans is awakening.

The median price for homes was off 1.1% from June, but it was up 7.2% year-over-year. The average price was up 2.4% from June and up 12.3% compared to last July. This is the tenth month in a row prices have been higher than the year before.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes stayed over 100% for the thirteenth month in a row: 100.2%.

The median and average prices for condos were up 3.3% and 9.5% respectively year-over-year.

Pending sales were down from June, but were still higher than the year before. Pending home sales were up 44.2%, while pending condo sales rose 44.7%.

Inventory for homes rose 9.6% year-over-year. This is the first month since November 2008 inventory has been higher than the year before.
Speaking of inventory, Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), said, at a recent Silicon Valley Association of REALTORS® (SILVAR) meeting in Palo Alto last month, in five to ten years California will experience a housing shortage.

She said household growth for the state is expected to be 200,000 a year. The CBIA reports only 13,000 permits pulled in the first six months of the year.