Andrew Hartland's Blog

HIGHLIGHTS for January 2010

- Investors return and are bidding up property values.

- Appraisals are lagging behind the increase in prices.

- Inventory rising, but still far below year-ago levels.

Investors are back in the market, and they’re paying all-cash, mostly for property under $500,000. The effect of this is to freeze out first-time home-buyers who have to get a loan. Banks are still chary about providing loans. About the only loans left for first-time buyers are FHA loans.

So, while the first-time buyer is working through the loan process, the investors are swooping in and buying the best property, which, after slapping a coat of paint on and, maybe, replacing the carpeting, they are putting back on the market. Sometimes, they rent out the property hoping for more appreciation down the road.

Appraisals are also affecting buyers who need a loan. Appraisals lag the market because they use past data, typically six months worth, to calculate current market value. When a market has bottomed out and begins rising, appraisals often come in under the value agreed upon by the buyer and seller. Banks are requiring buyers to come up with extra cash to make up the difference. First time buyers are having a hard time doing this, so we’re seeing many more sales fall out of escrow than normal.

Another thing hanging over the market is the so-called “shadow inventory” of bank-owned property that has not been put on sale. If the banks release these homes in a measured manner, the market should be able to absorb them.

Home sales were down significantly in January, falling 40.1% from December, and off 7.8% year-over-year. This is the first year-over-year decline since June 2008.

The decline in sales is not a result of reduced demand, rather it was produced by a lack of inventory, or should I say, a lack of desirable inventory.

We expect sales to regain their momentum through the Spring because of the extended tax credit and because this is historically the prime time for home sales.

From talking with other Santa Clara County real estate agents, properly priced homes in the most desired neighborhoods and school districts are being sold with multiple offers: many multiple offers.

The sales price to list price ratio, which is a solid indicator of demand, was over 100% in January for the seventh month in a row. At 101.3%, the ratio is at its highest level since September 2005.

HIGHLIGHTS for December 2009

- Home sales bounce back in December, ending the year on an up note.

- Home sales were up 28.7% in 2009, while the median price dropped 20.2%.

- The good news? Prices bottomed out in the first quarter and have been rising steadily, albeit slowly, ever since.

- Sales of single-family, re-sale homes rose 27.9% in December compared to December 2008.

With the extension, and expansion, of the tax credit for buyers, we expect sales to be strong through Spring because of the first-time home buyers tax credit of $8,000 for buying a principal residence. First-time buyer is a buyer who has not owned a principal residence in the three-year period prior to the purchase. There are some income limits. For full information, see: http://federalhousingtaxcredit.com.

In addition, the tax credit was expanded to include move-up buyers. The tax credit for move-up buyers is $6,500. A move-up buyer is a person who has owned and resided in the same home for at least five consecutive years of the eight years prior to the purchase date. Again, for full info, see the web site cited above.

P.S. The tax credit expires April 30th. You need to have a signed contract by then and close the sale within 60 days to qualify for the credit.

2009 Annual Report

The best that can be said about last year is it’s over! Home sales were up 28.7% from 2008, which was an abysmal year for sales. The 11,722 re-sale homes sold last year almost matched the 2006 number of 11,848, but is still a far cry from the 15,000 plus homes sold in 2004 and 2005.

The median price dropped 20.2% from 2008. The good news in all this is that prices bottomed out in the first quarter and started strengthening the last nine months of the year.

The year ended with inventory at its lowest level since January 2006. Other positive indicators as we start the new year include: Days of Inventory, which is how long it would take to sell all the homes on the market at the current rate of sales, ended the year at 50 days. We have to go back to the boom years of 2004 and 2005 to see numbers that low.

The sales price to list price ratio, or how much a buyer paid for the home compared to how much the seller was asking, was over 100% for the last six months of the year. When you see that happening, it means there were multiple offers.

Buyers are out there, but they’re looking for bargains. Which begs the question, what is a bargain?

A deal has nothing to do with the sales price to list price ratio. Remember, you are going to have to live in that home and that neighborhood. The most important thing is to find a home, in a neighborhood, you want to live in. If the house is fairly priced, make an offer. But understand, if the house is fairly priced, or even a little under-priced, and it is a good house in a good neighborhood, there will be multiple offers. If you find such a home, you can’t hesitate.

It is endemic among buyers that the deals are in bank-owned or short-sale property. But, banks have the property appraised before they put it on the market, and they price it at, or just a little below, market value. Which is why we’re seeing multiple offers and prices going over asking.

Go to my on-line site SCVReport.com for the full report, plus a city-by-city breakdown.

- The median price for single-family, re-sale homes went over the $600,000 mark for the first time since August 2008.

- Inventory continued to decline in November: down 66.7% compared to November 2008.

- Pending sales were up 90.4% year-over-year.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes went over the $600,000 mark in November for the first time since August 2008. It was also up, year-over-year, for the second month in a row.

The median price rose 2.1% month-over-month, and was up 20.3% compared to last November.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes declined 12.6% last month compared to October. Year-over-year, sales were up 35.6%. November was the seventeenth month in a row that sales were higher than the year before. Year-to-date, home sales are up 21.5%.

Condo sales were down last month, dropping 24.5% from October, but were up 49.5% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are up 22.4%.

The median price for condos rose 1.4% from the month before, and was up 14% year-over-year.

Inventory continues to decline with the supply of homes down 13.2% from October, and off 66.7% year-over-year. Condo inventory dropped 6.5%, off 66.5% compared to last November.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes stayed over 100% for the fifth month in a row: 100.7%.

Our days of inventory indicator for single-family homes was flat at 60 days. The indicator for condos rose twelve days to 62.

Pending sales, an indicator of what’s going to happen in the next month or two, fell 6% from October, but were up 90.4% year-over-year.

Go to my on-line site SCVReport.com for the full report, plus a city-by-city breakdown.

If you would like to search for properties in the Santa Clara Valley, go to my online search form at: MLS Search

If you find the Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report useful and know someone else who might, please feel free to forward this e-mail to them. There is also a four page printable version with more articles here:
Printable Report.

- The median price for single-family, re-sale homes was up, year-over-year, for the first time since January 2008.

- Inventory continued to decline in October: down 64.4% compared to October 2008.

- Pending sales were up 113.4% year-over-year.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 5.3% month-over-month, and was up 9.6% compared to last October. This is the first time since January 2008 the median price has been higher than the year before.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes declined 3.7% last month compared to September. Year-over-year, sales were up 17.4%. October was the sixteenth month in a row that sales were higher than the year before. Year-to-date, home sales are up 20.2%.

Condo sales were up last month, rising 10% from September, and up 36.1% year-over-year. Year-to-date, condo sales are up 20.0%.

The median price for condos rose 3.9% from the month before, but was down 6.7% year-over-year.

Inventory continues to decline with the supply of homes down 7.2% from September, and off 64.4% year-over-year. Condo inventory dropped 9.2%, off 65.9% compared to last October.

The sales price to list price ratio for homes stayed over 100% for the fourth month in a row.

Our days of inventory indicator for single-family homes shed two days, sending the indicator to 60 days. The indicator for condos fell eleven days to 50.

Pending sales, an indicator of what’s going to happen in the next month or two, rose 3% from September, and were up 113.4% year-over-year.

The real estate market is very hard to generalize. It is a market made up of many micro markets. For complete information on a particular neighborhood or for an evaluation of your home’s worth, call me.

Go to my on-line site SCVReport.com for the full report, plus a city-by-city breakdown.

If you would like to search for properties in the Santa Clara Valley, go to my online search form at: MLS Search

If you find the Santa Clara Valley Real Estate Report useful and know someone else who might, please feel free to forward this e-mail to them. There is also a four page printable version with more articles here:
Printable Report.